Wednesday, 2 August 2017

How Brexit Affected SNP GE Vote Share

A very quick and dirty blog, but I saw this analysis today [A Tale of Two Referendums - the 2017 Election in Scotland] and I couldn't keep my hands off it.

The analysis looks at four cohorts based on indyref and EUref vote (Yes/Remain, Yes/Leave, No/Remain and No/Leave) and tracks how General Election voting moved between 2015 and 2017 within those cohorts. I recommend reading it.

The analysis is excellent and clear but the "visual thinker" in me wanted to see the four cohorts shown in correct relative scale so I did this crude bit of image manipulation (and a few simple sums based on SNP share of those cohorts in 2015 and 2017).

 It may be too much in one picture and I've had to estimate share of cohort figures from the printed graphs but the numbers are good enough to tell the story (working down the cohorts above):

  • The SNP lost share in all cohorts
  • The SNP saw a 2% total vote share decline among Yes/Remain voters (who largely switched to Labour)
  • The biggest source of loss for the SNP was Yes/Leave voters who were responsible for a 5% total vote share decline for them
  • The SNP of course hoped to pick up No/Remain voters - but in fact they lost another 1% total vote share through this cohort, with those No voters who'd lent their votes to the SNP in 2015 largely switching to the Lib Dems
  • No/Leave voters largely switched to the Conservatives - and the few No/Leave voters who had lent their votes to the SNP in 2015 largely switched to Labour, losing the SNP another 1% of total vote share.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

A couple of points here, if I may, on features which haven’t attracted much comment.

One is the contraction of the electorate – down 100,000 or so. I haven’t compared with overall population changes, but I wonder if otherwise eligible voters people have allowed themselves to “lapse” from the electoral roll?

The second is the reduction in turnout – down a quarter of a million or so?

To what extent have the opinions of these groups – the disenfranchised and the abstainers – been reflected?

I suspect that a relatively large number of previous SNP voters chose to express dissatisfaction by not registering, or by staying at home on the day.

A corollary is there will be previous “stay-at-homers” who felt encouraged, possibly by the possibility of their candidate being electable, to come out and vote.